AUD/USD settled around 100 dma and neutral

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 18, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
    Likes Received:
    AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7155 with a high of 0.7186 and a low of 0.7132.

    AUD/USD's bullish tone has started to dissolve on the back of the recent jobs report from the Australian economy and the new cautionary tone from RBA's governor Stevens.

    However, risk sentiment continues to dominate and oil is a catalyst that while upside possibilities exist, the Aussie garners support. Further bounces in risk will continue to drive demand for AUD/USD and limit the downside. The employment in Australia dropped -7.9k vs the 13k gain expected while the unemployment rate rose to 6.0% vs. 5.8% consensus.

    "The breakdown was very important, as full-time jobs fell -40.6 vs. a revised 17.0k gain (was 17.6k) in December, while part-time jobs rose 32.7k vs. a revised -17.8k (was -18.5k) in December," explained analysts at BBH who suggested that the notion of further RBA easing clearly remains in play. Break above the month's high near 0.7240 would signal further gains.

    Gold rises sharply, reverses weekly losses

    Oil settles slightly up, holds onto weekly gains

    AUD/USD levels

    AUD/USD broke up through the 100 dma this week, but has been testing lower again while the key recent highs of circa 0.7240 can be broken with daily closes targeting the 200 dma at 0.7291 where demand could support the case for a correction of the September 2015 sell off from the 0.94 handle, targeting 0.7439 10th August and channel high. 0.6834 is the downside target as 2016 low and 0.7000 supports.

    Nearer term, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that the 1 hour chart presents a neutral-to-bearish stance. "The price has been contained by a bearish 20 SMA for most of this last session, while the technical indicators head nowhere around their mid-lines."
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