AUD/USD taking the brunt and outlook bearish

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 7, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
    Likes Received:
    FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD has traded at its lowest level since late Sep 2015.

    The major commodity currency took a beating in Asia and that punishment followed through in European and continues to trade better offered in the US. China is once again the main catalyst. The crisis is dominating markets and driving investors to safe havens.

    Commodities are also weighing on the Aussie and it is in desperate need of something positive domestically to rescue it from heading towards the 2008 lows of 0.6007 with Sep 2015 lows (strong historic support) at 0.6907 first stop. Nonfarm payrolls are the next big risk for the Aussie, and then the RBA.

    The RBA has been reluctant to act of recent meetings, but it is difficult to see how the Australian economy can sidestep what the rest of China's trading partners are suffering. The Feb RBA meeting will now be very interesting.

    Analysts at Rabobank, who are bearish on AUD/USD and looking for 0.66 medium term, explained, "For some time we have been arguing that risks associated with slowing growth in China is likely to lead to further easing from the RBA, potentially as soon as February."

    AUD/USD levels

    Technically, the late September lows are compelling at 0.6940 before 0.6907. 0.7080 is first key resistance while bulls may struggle at 0.7090 and the 20 SMA on the hourly. 0.7120 thereafter and 0.7156. AUD/USD is offered below 0.7200.
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