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AUD/USD: time to jump off the recovery train?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Mar 20, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    AUD/USD has been one of the best performers of late, rallying to questionable heights, which means to you the reader, it is time to make a decision. Can this recovery train keep going or is it time to jump off?

    We have been in a recovery phase of a glut in commodities after a 15 year rally in prices and the Aussie dollar is the major 'general' commodity currency garnering most of its support in recent weeks in a comeback in oil and metal prices while underpinned by a cautiously bullish RBA.

    So, on a fundamental basis, "can a recovery in commodities continue?" might be the first question to ask. The next question, given the recent FOMC outcome, would be whether the greenback is now a sell while then the RBA is put back to third place in analyzing the currency.

    AUD/USD recent price action

    Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that the "Australian dollar retreated on Friday from a fresh 8-month high of 0.7679 against the greenback, but closed the day with gains, around 0.7600. " This is quite significant, since it tells us that the market is overbought through 0.7600. If the Aussie cannot hold onto gains after last week's dovish outcome in the FOMC, then is it time to sell?

    US dollar on the back-foot, technically bearish - BBH

    In respect to the RBA, last week's jobs data was a big miss again, just as it was back in January. However, the Aussie was able to attract demand nevertheless. Behind the headline, the actual jobless rate fell to 5.8%. This should buffer the good news in the economy and continue to allow the RBA to stay on hold while remaining vigilant on performances from overseas and in the commodities sector. All in all, for the time being, AUD/USD bulls can rely on a weaker environment for the greenback and keep fingers crossed that commodities can continue to recover in the near term. For a medium to longer term recovery, well, that is questionable as prices are somewhat ahead of the curve.

    Oil: strong short covering - TDS

    "The strength of the short-covering in WTI crude oil, particularly with another 10% of short interest over the last week has been similar in magnitude to the early-2015 price rally and net spec positioning reversal. Despite current positive sentiment due to attempts by OPEC participants to "up-play" a potential April "freeze" meeting even without Iran, specs should be keen enough to see that without Iran global production will continue to charge forward. This should keep prices below current resistance and trending lower, as exuberance from the Fed dovish backtrack wears off," explained Bart Melek, Head of Commodity Strategy at TD Securities.

    AUD/USD levels

    Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that, technically, the daily chart shows that the pair has steadily posted higher highs and higher lows during the past three days, while advancing above a strongly bullish 20 SMA currently at 0.7400, whilst the technical indicators have barely corrected overbought readings, holding nearby.

    "In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators have resumed their advances after correcting extreme overbought readings, whilst the 20 SMA maintains a strong upward slope around 0.7565, the immediate support."AUD/USD's move higher has reached the 61.8% retracement at 0.7650/52 and we notice the 13 count on the daily chart and some caution is necessary. The intraday Elliott count is suggesting a retracement to 0.7520/0.7415."
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