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AUD/USD: tracking commodities; 0.76 handle history?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Mar 28, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    AUD/USD is currently consolidated in thin trade today with it being Easter Monday and there only being a partial show up for the trading day ahead with many holidays around the globe.

    AUD/USD bulls met their match of late on the 0.76 handle and meeting highs of 0.7680 on the 17th March. The commodities sector and volatility has been a key driver in the price action, with particular attention paid to iron in resoct to o the Aussie. Robert Rennie, Global Head of Market Strategy at Westpac, notes that iron ore exports from ‘other’ producers are rising again, suggesting that it should help to cap iron ore prices.

    Iron ore: more producers returning, should cap rally - Westpac

    We have been in a decisive bearish drift since the short-lived time on the 0.76 handle and recently penetrated at the 100 4hr sma at 0.7516. The week ahead will be key for the pair with a number of key releases from the US calendar. US: Core PCE MoM (Monday 13:30), Employment Report (Friday 13:30), ISM Manufacturing (Friday 15:00). While Australia is quiet, we will turn to China: Manufacturing PMI for a potential driver on Wednesday.

    AUD/USD levels

    Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained that the Australian dollar snapped a three-week advance and shed almost 1.3% last week. "The 61.8% post-ECB and post-FOMC retracements are found near $0.7510," adding, "The Australian dollar snapped a three-week advance and shed almost 1.3% last week." While AUD/USD trades in a wide range, there is a near term bearish bias after the failures on the 0.76 handle, and key support might be located at the 20 dma at 0.7483.

    Valeria Bednarik
    , chief analyst at FXStreet explained, "In the 4 hours chart, the price remains below a bearish 20 SMA, while the technical indicators have bounced partially from oversold readings, limiting chances of a stronger decline, but far from suggesting a steeper recovery." She added that the pair needs to rally beyond the 0.7600 figure to regain its bullish strength, and be able to extend its gains to new monthly highs.
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