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AUD/USD turns bearish post mix RBA statement

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 6, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD was slightly bid up to the 200 SMA on the hourly then turned on its head back to the 10 min 200 SMA around the RBA statement that has been released expressing that the Aussie is adjusting to lower commodity prices.

    At the same time, there is a hint of bearishness with the statement saying that there is capacity to ease policy further if needed to uplift demand.

    There is little here that has not already been signalled to the markets of late while the labour market is improving with jobs growth that has been stronger than expected and the RBA sees 2.25% GDP Growth on average for 2016, maintaining a relatively upbeat outlook for the economy. However, inflation forecasts were revised down, cutting near term inflation forecasts by 0.5 ppt, and shaved longer term gdp forecasts.

    Analysts at BBH explained, "The next meeting will likely be a close call. Right now, about a third of the analysts polled look for a 25 bp cut. Strong domestic credit growth may have bought the RBA some time, but further softness in the data would likely push it into cutting rates again. "

    The main event comes with the Nonfarm Payrolls in the US tonight that is tipped to be positive and could be the prelude to a Fed hike in Dec.

    Nonfarm Payrolls: Can it confirm a December rate hike?

    AUD/USD downside levels

    Technically, the pair is consolidated, but trades with a bearish bias overall. A break below the 0.71 handle targets the 0.7080/66 level that would be significant headed for the September lows at 0.6940 with 0.6774 2004 low on the wide.
    For more information, read our latest forex news.

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