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AUD/USD: We continue to see risks of further weakness – Rabobank

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 26, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Córdoba) - According to Jane Foley analyst at Rabobank concerns over the Chinese growth outlook and the risk that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could still cut rates again this cycle, favors the risk of further falls in AUD/USD.

    Key Quotes:

    “The value of AUD/USD took a dive overnight in response to the news that business investment has suffered its largest quarterly fall during Q3 in the 28 year history of the CAPEX survey. There were some mitigating factors behind the 9.2% q/q plunge in business investment.”

    “In spite of the weakness of investment last quarter, Australian labour data has been able to produce some positive surprises. (…) The release of the October jobs data had a substantial impact on market expectations regarding the likelihood of further RBA easing this cycle.”

    “While there would appear to be a more limited chance of a rate cut at the December 1 RBA meeting, the weakness of CPI inflation suggests there is still risk of further policy action at the February meeting after the release of the next set of quarterly inflation data.”

    “In spite of the headwinds, the Australian economy has benefitted from a substantial easing in monetary condition in the shape of the rapid drop in the value of AUD/USD since the start of 2013. That said, the RBA reported this month that “the effects of a decline in the exchange rate are proving a bit slow to come through”. In view of our concerns over the Chinese growth outlook and the risk that the RBA could still cut rates again this cycle, we continue to see risk of further falls in AUD/USD towards 0.68 on a 6 mth view.
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