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AUD/USD's 2016's reversal's correction targeting 20 dma

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 7, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    The previous couple of weeks have been a volatile recovery of the 2016 opening's global downtrend and sell-off in the Aussie. The greenback started to loose its edge and was unwound heavily, before a slight 'nonfarm payrolls recovery', to allow AUD/USD to regain the majority of the 474 pips between this year's highs and low of 0.6827.

    The greenback finished higher after the US jobs data on constructive details within the report, rater than the headline itself though. There was a much needed rise in the participation rate and lower unemployment that encouraged US dollar demand. AUD/USD made a low of 0.7058 from 0.7217 highs, finishing at the lows.

    AUD/USD in the week ahead

    For this week, although China are out, there are some that will be feeding the markets insights to the Chinese economy with data releases still churning. We already had the foreign exchange reserves mom 3.23vs 3.2 expected, but below 3.3 prior. We will all get a measure of economic activity during the week in the CB Leading Economic Index for December. However, the focus has started to turn from China and attention switches to oil and whether the US is going to enter a recession.

    Stocks, oil , Fed Yellen's and the RBA's testimony will be the key drivers. Janet Yellen will make her semi-annual testimony on Capital Hill and there her remarks remain mostly balanced then that should reinforce the Fed's wait and see mode. This was consequently underpinning the dollars softer tone and allowing for skepticism form the non believers in the market. Meanwhile the key outtake of the RBA's testimony will be where Stevens is placed on the exchange rate in the Aussie and how concerning the offshore winds are.

    AUD/USD's technical picture

    Meanwhile, technically, the Australian dollar met the minimum measuring objective of the head and shoulders bottom pattern, explained the analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman. "The immediate downside risk extends toward $0.6985-$0.7035."

    Despite the pessimism for the US economy, the greenback can't be held back for long and until a full recovery of the 2016 downtrend can be recovered and held, threatening the 200 dma at 0.7327 today, the outlook remains technically bearish.

    "Longer term the risks are on the downside and we target the 0.6774 2004 low. Nearby support at 0.6920 guards the 0.6828/29 recent lows," suggested Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank.

    For today, we are below the pivot of 0.7199 en-route to the 20 dma and last week's support line at 0.7008. A correction above the pivot has R1 at 0.7246 and R3 at 0.7338.
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