AUDUSD unlikely to hold above 0.70, target 0.68 end Q1 – BNPP

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 13, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
    Likes Received:
    FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BNP Paribas, notes that the China’s December trade was better than expected, with exports and imports falling by less than expected.

    Key Quotes

    “Exports were down 1.4% y/y, while imports fell 7.6%, resulting in the trade surplus widening more than expected to USD 60.1bn vs expectations of USD 51.3bn. Our economists note that while the data are better than expected, it is by no means spectacular. AUDUSD has bounced on the release, initially trading above 0.7040 but we think the pair is unlikely to hold above 0.7000.

    We continue to see short AUDUSD as an ‘all weather’ bullish position on the US dollar, likely to perform in the positive and negative risk scena rios. We are also short AUDCAD in our recommendation portfolio and, while recent moves in oil have not been supportive of the trade, CAD’s overextended short positioning continues to suggest downside risks for that cross.

    The most significant data release for the remainder of the week in the G10 commodity exporter bloc will be Australia’s December employment report on Thursday. Our economists expect a worse than consensus report, forecasting a 20k m/m fall in employment which would pushing the unemployment rate up to 6.0%.”
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