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Aussie Capex preview - what to expect in AUD/USD?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 25, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    AUD/USD has had a free ride of late, rallying further away form the RBA's preferred level vs the greenback down at 0.65c and reached a new high for Feb yesterday at 0.7258. The subsequent supply attracted demand from 0.7145 that propelled the Aussie back on top the 0.72 handle overnight, ahead of the key Capex data.

    AUD/USD has been lacking domestic impetus this week so far since this year's announcements from the RBA who are increasingly more concerned about global headwinds and turning more cautiously optimistic for the Australian economy than before.

    Indeed, many of the driving forces are out of their hands, with the price of oil and key commodity prices such as iron ore, coal and copper making multi-year lows so far this year and China weighing on demand. Throughout 2015, the RBA has been reliant on domestic growth and the economy has fared better than most others in the G10 sector with solid jobs creation across various sectors, while concentrating on services and other sectors other than mining to balance the scales in Australia's economy and trade balance.

    However, one thing Australia might not be doing so well is investing in the future of such business sectors, as recently expressed by Stevens when he acknowledged that capital spending outside of mining is considerably weaker now than he would have expected. Today, we get the first look at firms’ investment plans for 2016-17 and the fifth estimate for 2015-16, as well as actual Capex spending for Q4 2015

    Capex in decline

    Capex has been in decline in each of the last four quarters, and should this be evident again in today's data, with the expectations looking for yet another decline of another of -3.1%, the Aussie could come under some serious pressure, especially given the previous jobs report, raising concerns that the Reserve Bank of Australia might need to cut rates again this year in a bid to stimulate non-mining investment among other requirements in respect to meeting their inflation target throughout this and next year that is already at the very bottom of their preferred band between 2-3%.

    Analysts expectation in Capex

    Analysts at ANZ explained that the focus of this week’s survey will be on firms’ first estimate of non- mining investment intentions for 2016-17 and while they are expecting some modest improvement in firms' non-mining investment intentions for 2016-17. "We would note that this survey was taken over January and February, which was a period of heightened financial market volatility.

    We have penciled in a raw non-mining estimate of AUD51bn for 2016-17, which would point to year-average growth just shy of 2% y/y. This would be in line with our view that a slow, but steady pickup in consumer demand will eventually support investment spending"

    Key levels to monitor in AUD/USD

    The key target for the bears is a break of the 0.70 handle, below the support of the bullish channel formed at the end of January's business this year. On a surprise or a simple improvement on expectations, the Aussie could be up to test the 200-day AM at 0.7271 (R3 0.7275) in a short period of time on a break of 0.7258 recent highs. The pivot is first stop at 0.7226 guarding recent highs. A break of the 200 dma with daily closes opens up the December highs of 0.7327, the 30th Dec and 0.7385 on the 3rd Dec.
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