Aussie CPI's preview: What to expect in AUD/USD?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Oct 28, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD is currently wrestling around the 0.72 handle making a minor recovery from below the lowest point the price has been since the first week of October this year ahead of key CPI's that may just be the life ring thrown out today for the committed bulls.

    CPI expected to be positive

    Australia Q3 CPI is on is on its way as one the main catalysts this week for the price of the Aussie coming out at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK. The market consensus is for 1.7% y/y Q3, up from 1.5% prev while q/q for the same quarter is expected at 0.6% vs 0.7%. Housing is continuing to contribute to the prospects of a higher reading and the past benefits of a weaker Aussie will likely add to a bullish case while the RBA maintain a steady hand, despite the possible headwinds coming in from China and a drop in commodity prices of late.

    Analysts at Westpac Banking Corporation explained that their core (average of the trimmed mean and weighted median) forecast is 0.5% q/q, 2.4% y/y, and said the market also expecting 0.5% q/q. "The six month annualised pace drops to 2.1% y/y from 2.5% and 2.8% in Q1. This would mean CPI is no barrier to action next week; rather the debate would be over the growth outlook."

    AUD/USD: Key levels to monitor

    Technically, the price has been pressured lower below the 0.7385 Fibo retracement and downward pressures persist with RSI (14) reading 31 and on the brink of oversold territory with bearish MA's aligned. The 0.7180/90 falls in as the breakout point to the downside en route to 0.7000.
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