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Aussie GDP Q3 - what to expect in AUD/USD?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 1, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD has been making a strong recovery from the Nov lows circa 0.7010 and has recently garnered demand right through the cluster of hourly SMA's in a softer greenback. A series of data has been supportive of the Aussie of late against the backdrop of a bullish and an 'on-hold' RBA who are sighting a robust enough economy in the face of an otherwise lagging Global economy, despite actual conditions being lack luster with major headwinds in the downturn of investments in the mining sector.

    This week has started out as a huge week for the major commodity currency and the greenback, while the RBA meeting wasn't anticipated to shake anything up with a widely anticipated decision to stay on hold, the GDP Q3 is sighted to reveal factual data that may coincide with what the RBA was warning of when in the statement the RBA cited weakness in demand as a factor to explain weakness in commodity prices.

    Aussie dollar strength and the Australian Q3 GDP - what to expect?

    The RBA was also signalling that it may be set to downgrade its outlook for growth in its main trading partners in its statement which could be a factor taken into consideration further into 2016. For the meantime, analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained that they continue to believe that ongoing weakness in the price of Australia’s key export commodity prices will bring an end to the Australian dollar’s recent resilience.

    In respect of the GDP Q3 though, analysts at Westpac Banking Corporation expect Australian Q3GDP growth to print at 0.7%qtr and 2.1%yr (allowing for –0.2% for likely downward revisions to history from the annual national accounts). “This follows a solid start to 2015, +0.9%qtr in Q1, followed by a meek 0.2%qtr gain in Q2"... Read more from Westpac here.

    AUD/USD levels to monitor

    Technically, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that in the near term, while spot is 0.7320, the 1 hour chart shows that the price holds well above a bullish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators consolidate in overbought territory, with no signs of turning lower.

    The price action earlier in the US had the 0.7250/70 resistance taken out and while the price outlook is bullish, a continuation of the upside would need to break the 200 DMA at 0.7467 and continue higher to alleviate downside pressures stemming from 0.9200 and Sep 2014 downtrend. To the downside, the 55 SMA on the hourly time frames stands as strong level of support around the cluster of MA's at that juncture.
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