Aussie jobs data preview - what to expect in AUD/USD

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 11, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USDstrong>> has been awaiting the key jobs data coming up today as the main catalyst this week after the Chinese data dump and previous Nonfarm Payrolls of last week that set the scene for the downside in the major commodity currency. AUD/USD has been eyeing a break of the 0.7000 level but so far has lacked momentum on offers towards the psychological support zone.

    AUD/USD is caught between the Central Banks and commodity markets while the RBA remains on hold but is starting to move towards a dovish bias in light of head winds from China, lower commodity prices and a mixed domestic growth outlook. The jobs sector is a key component to the RBAs decision making amongst GDP, CPI and concerns for a housing bubble.

    Sean Callow, analyst at Westpac explained that the RBA held the cash rate at 2.0% in November for the fifth straight month. "The downside surprise on Q3 CPI did not produce the rate cut a minority had expected but the RBA did say that “the outlook for inflation may afford scope for further easing of policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand.“ • Westpac expects rates to be kept on hold in Dec and indeed through 2016. The RBA’s Nov Statement on Monetary Policy included a forecast of 3% y/y growth by Dec 2016. So long as this is the RBA’s view, they should be content with a 2% cash rate."

    What to expect in the jobs data

    The jobs sector in Australia has been buoyed on a weaker currency, ultra low interest rates and weak wage growth that has been encouraging hiring since the RBA set a policy to spur domestic growth in the economy earlier in the year.

    Tony Abbott was pleased recently when Australian unemployment fell in August to 6.2% as expected month from 6.3% in July and the total number of people in work rose by 7,400 driven by part-time jobs. The rate of unemployment came in at 6.2% in September and markets are expecting to match that this time around for the month of October.

    The RBA said recently that unemployment will stay between 6 to 6.5% and then fall. Unemployment within this bracket below 6.5% should be tolerated by the markets but obviously a result worse than expected could and going against the progress of Abbots jobs and growth agenda could be digested as bearish for the Aussie.

    Key levels to monitor in AUD/USD

    Technically, AUD/USD has been changing hands below the base of the 2-month channel at 0.7097 this week since NFPs supply while pressures were lessening in a period of consolidation in the last 24hrs of trade.

    However, there is a strong bearish bias while trading below the 0.7298/0.7385 Fibo retracement and within the 2014-2015 downtrend. Bears on a worse than expected result in unemployment will be looking for a break of the 0.7000 support level. This will open the September 9th low of circa 0.6940 targeting 0.6905 that guards territory to the 0.6774 2004 low. A break of 0.7100-80 will alleviate immediate downside pressures.
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