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Aussie jobs data run down, before event - Westpac

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Oct 15, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Westpac Banking Corporation explained that the Australian labour force survey results will be released 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK.

    Key Quotes:

    "Westpac is forecasting a 15k rise in employment (market median 9.6k, range 0-25k). Our economists note that Aug and Sep have been significantly affected by the changes the ABS made to the supplementary surveys, and it will take years for seasonal factors to settle down. We know the ABS is making significant adjustments to the underlying data to remove the volatility but this is a bit of a black box."

    "For today, leading indicators are pointing to an annual pace of employment growth of just under 2% y/y and the August print of +17.4k was enough to add 213.8k in the year for a 2.0% y/y pace. We look for a bit of a statistical correction this month."

    "We are suspicious when the participation rate holds above its recent trend, but given the factor noted above we are even less sure than usual on what this print will be. So we have gone for a trend number of 15K which if the participation rate is flat will hold the unemployment rate at 6.2% (in line with consensus). Given we don’t understand what adjustment the ABS will make to the data we can’t assess the risks to the number."
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