Aussie jobs preview - what to expect in AUD/USD

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 9, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD has dropped its bid tone this week in a series of down days leading into the key jobs event today for the Australian economy. We went from 0.7385 down to 0.7122 the low today to test the 100 DMA at 0.7189.

    The data has been mixed leading into this event, both from China, the US and Australia. US data has been favouring the hawkish camp at the FOMC for a rate hike next week that will soon be the next big thing for AUD/USD when the job data dust settles down while China's trade balance overshadows the upside surprises of yesterday's inflation outcome.

    Australian Jobs data and expectations

    For today, Sean Callow, analyst at Westpac broke down the jobs data event into a preview as follows"

    "The Australian labour force survey will be released at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK. Westpac's forecast of -20k change in total employment is at the bottom of the range (-20k to +15k, median -10k). Employment lifted 58k in Oct, growing at an annual pace of 2.7%.

    The original series showed a rise of 92.7k, while Oct is usually a significant negative. Other indicators also suggest that this pace is too strong and -20k in Nov would bring the pace of employment growth back down to around 2.0%. Changes in rules on benefits appear to have boosted the participation rate to 65.0% (64.5% in Sep) though we expect that some of this was also statistical noise.

    With the participation rate correcting back to 64.8%, the unemployment rate would rise by 0.1ppts to 6.0%. AUD risks seem skewed somewhat to the topside, with a flat or positive reading on jobs to produce a decent bounce, whereas a sharp decline would be brushed off as a statistical correction."

    AUD/USD key levels to monitor

    Technically, the minor recovery ran into keen supply on the 0.73 handle and now the 20 DMA is offering support leading into the data at 0.7221. A break lower will need to get through the 0.7180 level and overnight lows at 0.7172 that is roughly the point at which the price rallied in late November trade to recent highs. However, a further test or two and a material break could be last defense for 0.7017 November low and the September low at 0.6940.

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