Aussie jobs preview - what to expect in AUD/USD

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 17, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    AUD/USD traders have been waiting for this one. Since the commotion of 2016's opening volatility, the Aussie has made a steady recovery from the risk-off lows last month of 0.6834, being an economy with one of the most consistent governors of the Central Bank.

    Stevens has been confidently optimistic throughout 2015 that the economy is growing against a backdrop of an impressive jobs sector. Today, we will see how jobs have been fairing up for the month of January.

    2015 was indeed an impressive year for Australian jobs numbers, but in the face of a continued glut in commodities, and with such news as the head of Royal Dutch Shell in Australia advising that job cuts will inevitably be required in Queensland after the $US53 billion ($74.1 billion) takeover of BG Group that is pointing to opportunities to cut costs in gas development to help cope with the collapse in oil prices.

    More vigilance fro the RBA in 2016

    RBA's governor, Stevens, needs to be on the alert. Indeed, he recently explained that they are more cautionary in respect to the Global headwinds in commodity and tightening in the financial markets, specifically he is monitoring China in that respect, their major trading partner whose economy is struggling to grow.

    Aussie jobs expectations

    The Australian jobs data is out at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK. Analysts at Westpac are expecting a 15k rise in employment, consensus at 13k (range -30k to +40k). "While we may still question the magnitude of recent strength, overall the labour market outside of WA is robust. Growth in employment slowed to 2.6% y/y and we expect the pace to continue to decline until it is in line with our preferred leading indicators," explained the analysts at Westpac, adding, "Westpac is forecasting a modest rise in the participation rate from 65.1% to 65.2%, which would bring the unemployment rate up from 5.8% to 5.9%."

    AUD/USD levels to monitor

    AUD/USD has made a recovery through the 100 dma at 0.7146 and is targeting the recent 0.7242 high with the pivot at 0.7123 today. A good number could propell the Aussie to the 0.72 handle. Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained, "Short term, the 1 hour chart shows that the price is well above a bullish 20 SMA, but that the technical indicators have turned slightly lower from near overbought readings, in line with a downward move."

    To the downside, a poor report will challenge the cluster of MA's on the same hourly chart that offer support until a break of the 200 sma at 0.7105 where risk to 0.7064 and recent lows exposes 0.6980, below S3 at 0.7007.
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