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Aussie jobs preview - what to expect in AUD/USD?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Mar 16, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    It has been quite a day for AUD/USD with some two way business leading into the FOMC showdown where the Aussie rallied as the greenback fell off a cliff. We now move into the jobs data that has been keenly awaited ever since the previous Jan shocker and surprise set back in the Australian economy, that has now otherwise been accepted by markets due to previous strength and time of year.

    Fed keeps rates unchanged as expected, lowers rate hike expectations


    AUD/USD ahead of the curve?

    AUD/USD has been supported on commodity price recovery attempts, but the price towards 0.7600 was questionable and toppy as perhaps ahead of the curve in respect of the global economy and the unfortunate longevity in a continued glut in oil and stagnated demand for commodities in general.

    Jobs is a massive component for the RBA's policy setting

    The RBA has been more cautious in its outlook for the global economy this year and is concerned for the impact on domestic growth while inflation only being within the lower end of its preferred target bracket of between 2-3%. The jobs sector is a very large component of the bullish side of the economy and the Central Bank is relying heavily on it in order to stave of the need to cut interest rates in the face of potential deflationary pressures.

    February Aussie Job expectations

    Analysts at Westpac explained that Australia Feb employment is due at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK and that they are expecting a gain of 10k while market median is 13.5k (range 3.2k to 25k). "Various other indicators suggest that Australia has a robust labour market outside WA. So any doubts we have about the survey are more about magnitude rather than direction. Jan's -7.9k was expected given recent strength. +10k in Feb will see the annual pace ease to 2.3% y/y from 2.5% y/y. Participation in Jan was a marginal rise to 65.18% and we are expecting another gain to 65.20%. This will bring the unemployment rate up to 6.1% (consensus 6.0%)," explained the analysts at Westpac.

    AUD/USD key levels to monitor

    Technically, on the back of the FOMC overnight, AUD/USD rallied through both the 200 and 100 sma on the 0.74 handle ahead of the 4hr 20 sma at 0.7501 until the high of 0.7567. The jobs report is likely to give us volatility as usual and it could be the one set of data that is most probable to test the barriers of the key 0.7600 level on anything more than expected on the positive side. But how high could it go?

    AUD/USD could test the 0.7760 area – Commerzbank
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