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Aussie jobs preview - what to expect in AUD/USD?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Apr 14, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    AUD/USD has been drifting lower after being capped this month on the 0.77 handle after a strong uptrend in a recovery of end of March sell-off. The U.S. dollar has picked up a bid this week in the absence of domestic drivers for the Aussie. However, today's session brings the key jobs data as the main focus with eyes on the improving jobless rate below 6%.

    Labour force to keep RBA sidelined?

    There are mixed views on the Australian economy, but all eyes will be monitoring today's labour force data as a key component towards the RBA's decision making process. Australia Mar employment will be out at 11:30am Syd/9:30am Sing/HK. The market will be looking for evidence that the jobs sector in Australia remains on track and is able to improve on 2015's impressive record. Analysts at ANZ explained that the expectations for this data are that (measured) employment rose solidly in March (ANZ: +20k; mkt: +17k) following no growth since November.

    "Following the 0.2ppt decline in the unemployment rate in February, the market is looking for a slight uptick to 5.9% (ANZ: 5.8%). The monthly labour force report can be a ‘lottery' of course. Our view is that underlying hiring demand has slowed in early 2016, but will be sufficient this year to maintain an unemployment rate within earshot of 5¾%. This will keep the RBA on the sidelines."

    If unemployment rate deteriorate back above 6%...

    However, given lats year's impressive track record, despite all the revisions and the sorry saga of a row over the Australian Bureau of Statistics' accuracy, should jobs growth start to deteriorate in the unemployment rate back above 6%, towards the peak of 6.4% in 2015, the major external risks and recent ructions in China that have been indicative of broader global challenges could be viewed to be taking their toll on the Australian economy and it would be noted by the RBA that achieving growth is much more difficult in the post financial crisis world. If such a message gets out in the market, the Aussie could come under immense pressure in due course.

    AUD/USD levels to monitor

    The key downside support is located at 0.7630 and yesterday's highs, 0.7580/50, 0.7520 and 11th April lows, 0.7477, 24th March low, 0.7416 (16th March low) and this guards the October and November highs at 0.7384/81. On a positive outcome, a push for 0.7722 March high should result for a break of the double top highs and open territory for 17th June highs of 0.7849.
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