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Aussie multi-data preview: what to expect in AUD/USD?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 5, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD settled into a phase of consolidation after yet another surge higher, but this time to challenge the 0.72 handle. For today, Australia releases retail sales along with the RBA's quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP).

    The upside in the Aussie is not quite organic. The greenback is well and truly out of favor across the board amidst growing concerns as the year gets under way that the Fed may not be in a position to continue gradually hiking rates while data beyond the jobs market disappoints. Tomorrow, however, nonfarm payrolls will be released and has the potential to be a big impact event.

    Retail sales and SoMP outlook

    "Consumer sentiment posted a reasonably solid finish to 2015 and Christmas spending plans were more upbeat than previous years. The tone from private sector business surveys however softened in Dec, though from a high level. Nominal sales are on track for a 1.4% q/q gain in Q4, up from 0.9% in Q3. The detail from the Q4 CPI report points to a 0.5% rise in retail prices, which would see a 0.9% q/q gain in real retail sales. There is some risk around the price-volume split for the quarter as the CPI detail showed a surprisingly strong 7.4% jump in tobacco prices," explained analysts at Westpac.

    The RBA's SoMP could offer added dovishness to the scene after the RBA's recent meeting and rhetoric noting potential negative impact from abroad. However, it is unlikely that there will be any great surprises outside of what we already got from Stevens' statement of late.

    Meanwhile, for today, we have Australia retail sales and RBA's SoMP both at 11:30am Syd/8:30 Sing/HK. Both are key and also have the potential to be big impact events. Westpac's forecast of another solid 0.4% m/m gain in Dec is in line with consensus.

    "The governor’s statement on Tuesday was quite clear around inflation and the global financial backdrop. There were some hints they would be nudging their CPI forecast for the year ended Jun 2016 lower from 1.5-2.5% but this should have limited policy implications," explained the analysts at Westpac.

    RBA needs to remain vigilant

    Meanwhile, as elaborated on recently, there have been some conflicting outlooks for the Australian economy. The nation has not been in a recession for nearly 25 years, but according to Australian Bureau of Statistics, there was a surprisingly sharp contraction in third-quarter business investment and shows that the nation has fallen into a pattern of weak aggregate demand and excessive corporate savings that are not being reinvested in additional capacity or productivity enhancement. The RBA indeed needs to remain vigilant.

    Key levels to monitor in AUD/USD

    AUD/USD has flown through key levels and is embarking on a full retracement of the 2016 downtrend above the convergence of the 100 and 55 dma at 0.7143 today having scored a high of 0.7242 and almost a full cent higher. On a continuation of the uptrend, the 200 dma at 0.7328 stands as the key objective beyond the 2016 January starting point of 0.7301. to the downside, the pivot is at 0.7124 ahead of S1 at 0.7058, S2 at 0.6936 and S3 at 0.6870.

    Nonfarm Payrolls: Expect another round of dollar sell-off
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