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Aussie retail sales preview - AUD/USD price action?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Mar 4, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    AUD/USD is in positive territory above the 200 dma at 0.7109. We now await a big day ahead, starting with Aussie retail sales ahead of nonfarm payrolls.

    The recent gains were supported overnight with decent flows in metal prices, including copper that was 1.33% up in to the US close. We now await the retails sales that could be a mover. However, whether it can be the catalyst ahead of nonfarm payrolls to take out the strong level of resistance up ahead or not, as the level was a previous double top and it may take something significant to see the level broken.

    Nonfarm Payrolls: focus this time will be on wages

    Retail sales expectations

    Australia January retail sales are released at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK. The data is a key component towards the RBA's decision making process, tracking the confidence on the high streets in consumer spending and ultimately will effect levels inflation. The last reading was a disappointing flat reading, as noted by analysts at Westpac, " Particularly given the reasonably solid consumer sentiment and private sector business surveys leading in to the Christmas sales period. Westpac and consensus are looking for 0.4% m/m in Jan, a pick up in momentum".

    AUD/USD levels

    Technically, AUD/USD is on the recovery from below the 0.72 handle and has penetrated the 200 dma at 0.7253 and is headed to test the recent resistance and previous double top at 0.7382. 0.7439 is a key objective in the near term being the August 2015 highs.

    Valeria Bednarik
    , chief analyst at FXStreet explained that in the short-term, the 1 hour chart shows that the 20 SMA maintains a strong upward tone below the current level, while the technical indicators have lost their upward strength near overbought levels, but with the price holding near its daily high, chances of a downward correction are quite limited. "In the 4 hours chart, the Momentum indicator has resumed its advance in extreme overbought territory, while the RSI indicator hovers around 77, also suggesting bearish chances are limited, even as a bare correction."
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