Aussie trade balance preview - what to expect in AUD/USD?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 2, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD continues to tank on a combination of yesterday's RBA statement, oil continuing to slide on disappointments that there is no end to the supply and outright risk-off markets with the Yen now scoring below the 120 handle again, but making fresh lows since the US session low of 119.67.

    RBA turns 'door-wide-openly' dovish

    Yesterday, the RBA left rates steady at 2.00% as widely expected, but the statement offered an air of caution and the board are leaving the door wide open for further easing ahead should developments in the economy require action.

    AUD/USD awaiting the trade balance

    We are awaiting the trade balance for today from the Australian economy for yet further clues as to whether the RBA should be more concerned about the outlook and the foreign headwinds that could negatively impacting the Australian economy.

    The trade balance is released at 11:30am Syd/9:30am Sing/HK. the consensus is for the trade balance to widen by -2,500mAUD. However, Westpac's forecast is for the deficit to widen to A$3.3bn Nov deficits were at an already sizeable $2.9bn. The analysts explained, "Imports are expected to decline by 1.6% as a stronger AUD in Dec places downward pressure on import and export values. Exports are forecast to fall by 3.2%, with iron ore a key source of weakness on falling prices and fewer shipments."

    Key levels to monitor in AUD/USD

    Earlier, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet noted that, technically, the 1 hour chart shows that the price is being now capped by a bearish 20 SMA, while the technical indicators are turning south after a limited upward correction from oversold readings. "In the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA also caps the upside around 0.7090, the immediate resistance, while the technical indicators lack directional strength and hold below their mid-lines, maintaining the risk towards the downside."

    Meanwhile, the price is trading below the pivot of 0.7091 ahead of S2 at 0.7011 and S3 at 0.6979. the price is also below the 200 sma on the hourly chart now at 0.7036 and has not been below the sma since 26th Jan. On a full reversal of the recent rally, 0.6774 is the 2004 low below 0.6920 that guards the 0.6828/29 recent lows.

    For the upside, a break of the 4hr 20 sma at 0.7076 where the 200 sma converges at 0.7080, last week's highs of 0.7140 then come back into focus ahead of R2 at 0.7171 and R3 at 0.7219.
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