Australian Q4 GDP: Modest 0.3% increase expected - Westpac

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Mar 1, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    Westpac is expecting Australia’s GDP in Q4 to have expanded by a modest 0.3%, keeping the y/y rate at 2.5%. The decision is due at 00.30 GMT.

    Key Quotes

    This is a slight downgrade from our previous forecast of 0.5%, following the weaker than expected reading on Australia’s Q4 net exports (the rise in public demand provided limited offset)."

    "The RBA should be expecting a muted end to 2015 while still judging that there are “reasonable prospects for continued growth in the economy.”

    "In the details, we will be looking particularly at household consumption, which we expect to have risen 0.5%. The updated consensus forecast on Bloomberg is 0.4% q/q."

    "There is always scope for surprise - headline GDP has not printed exactly in line with consensus since Q1 2014. Clearly we see AUD risks tilted to the downside, with the closely watched expenditure measure of GDP set to be weaker than the income and production measures."
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