Australia's Q4 CPI: Stronger than expected – SocGen

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 27, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Societe Generale, notes that the Australia's Q4 CPI report was a bit stronger than expected, though different measures are a bit mixed.

    Key Quotes

    “Headline 1.7% (after 1.5%, 1.6% median and SG), and the quarterly gains in the core rates a bit above median at 0.6% for the trimmed mean and in line for the weighted median at 0.5%. But the yearon- year changes in the core just in line at 2.1% (unchanged from Q3) for the trimmed mean, and below for the weighted median at 1.9% (from 2.1%, revised down 0.1pp) (median 2.1%). Bottom line: no direct pressure on the RBA to ease because of excessively low inflation, but if they deem a cut necessary to boost growth, the CPI gives ample scope.

    The details of the CPI report suggest that upward pressure on prices from the long and deep depreciation of the AUD may at last be coming through.

    Although the index receives little attention in Australia, the CPI ex food and energy strengthened to 2.6% yoy from 2.3%, which tells a rather different story from those core measures that get all the attention locally. Still, we maintain the view that the data are not sufficiently weak to push the RBA to cut rates at this stage, given quite solid growth indicators, especially for the labor market.

    Lastly, the CPI readings were right in line with the RBA's November forecasts of 1 3/4% for the headline (1.7% actual), and 2.0% for underlying inflation (average, as mentioned 2.0%). That said, given the plunge in oil prices since early November, the RBA's headline inflation forecasts for 2016 and probably 2017 will almost certainly be revised down, though not necessarily the core rate projections.”
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