Bank of Japan to stay on hold amid fears of a surprise - BBH

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 25, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Córdoba) - According to analysts from Brown Brother Harriman, the Bank of Japan, that meets later this week, is not likely to expand its monetary policy stance but the warn that a fear of a surprise from the central bank might be the reason that kept the yen limited.

    Key Quotes:

    “The Bank of Japan meets later this week. We do not think that it will expand its already aggressive monetary policy stance. Given the largely operational adjustments announced last month, it seems premature to expect substantive adjustment now. It is true that the recent string of data has been mostly disappointing, and the yen has strengthened on a trade-weighted basis over the past month.”

    We suggest that investors instead watch closely the BOJ's inflation forecasts. It is expected to cut next fiscal year's forecast. It will be significant if it is cut below 1%, or is FY2017 is cut from its current from its 1.8% forecast.”

    “If the BOJ were to expand QQE, we expect that would be negative for the yen, though positive for Japanese shares. If it lowers the inflation forecasts, many would see it as a signal that QQE will, in fact, be expanded later, perhaps as early as April.”

    “Given the pullback in oil prices today, the weakness in equities and the drift lower in US bond yields, the dollar’s resilience against the yen is surprising. It is difficult to draw a hard and fast conclusion, but it seems that fear of a BOJ surprise may be one of the factors keeping the yen down.”
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