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BoC decision preview: What to expect of USD/CAD?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 20, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Córdoba) - The Bank of Canada will announce its monetary policy decision at 15:00 GMT, and hours before the release, analysts are split on whether the bank is about to cut the main rate to start the year.

    Those expecting a 25 bps cut, that will leave the cash rate at 0.25%, base their forecast on further oil prices weakness and its negative effects on the Canadian economy. However, others are expecting monetary stimulus in the form of QE, as Governor Poloz has indicated a willingness to consider unconventional measures.

    Ahead of the decision, USD/CAD is trading at fresh 13-year highs just below 1.4700 and the BoC decision is going to bring even more volatility whatever the outcome, since market speculation is split.

    Any decision to leave rates on hold could offer short-term relief to the loonie, which has depreciated by more than 5% so far this year, although a dovish stance could potentially limit CAD recovery.

    If the bank decides on cutting rates or launch unconventional measures, the Canadian dollar is subject to heavy losses with 1.5000 just around the corner. Even if the BoC decides to stay on hold, any hints at further moves later in the year, could hurt the CAD.

    USD/CAD levels to watch

    On the upside, above 1.4700, next resistances could be found at 1.4951 (monthly high March 2003) and 1.5000 (psychological level) ahead of 1.5334 (monthly high February 2003). On the other hand, key supports are seen at 1.4502/00 (100-hour SMA/psychological level) and 1.4353 (38.2% Fibo retracement of 2016 rally).
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