BoC rate call, UK employment up next - Rabobank

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 20, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Bali) - Michael Every, Head of Financial Markets Research, Asia-Pacific, at Rabobank, writes a preview on what to expect for today, with the Bank of Canada rate decision (close call) and UK jobs the key events.

    Key Quotes

    Today we start with the ECB’s Nowotny speaking, and the turn to UK unemployment (seen unchanged at 5.2% but rightly not influencing the BoE’s thinking at all right now).

    After that it’s US housing starts and building permits (consensus: 1,200K for both measures) followed by US CPI, which is seen unchanged m-o-m headline and 0.8% y-o-y, though the core measure is expected to edge up to 2.1% y-o-y, perhaps the only flashing amber (not red) light we have anywhere in the OECD on the inflation front. Overlooked by the markets, no doubt, will be the real average weekly earnings series that now comes out with CPI: that was just 1.6% y-o-y in November despite headline CPI being so low, which is another strong argument why “one more rate cut will not do it”. We also see that Canadian rate decision, of course.

    It’s also Davos time, of course, where we can listen to the great and good try to put a positive spin on things to avoid confronting the uncomfortable facts discussed above: lots of headlines there, for sure.

    Let’s see how the market trades today. Will it listen to Mr. White, or will we just see the financial equivalent of white noise?
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