BoE: Inflation report to downgrade growth and inflation forecasts – Lloyds Bank

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 1, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Lloyds Bank, notes that the recent speeches from BoE Governor Carney and other MPC members, as well as the minutes of the January policy meeting, have emphasised the accumulation of downside risks to domestic activity and inflation since the November Inflation Report (IR).

    Key Quotes

    “Some of this reflects international developments. The preliminary estimate of Q4 GDP puts growth at a near-trend 0.5% q/q, while annual headline inflation remains close to zero as energy base effects soften against the backdrop of the nearly 40% fall in oil prices since the November IR.

    But there have also been concerns about the unexpected slowdown in the pace of wage growth despite the continuing robustness of employment and a stronger-than-anticipated dip in headline unemployment. Despite the upward impacts of a 4% weakening in trade-weighted sterling since the November report, further downgrades to projections for GDP growth and inflation over 2016 and 2017 are expected.

    Nonetheless, concerns about the supply-side capacity of the economy, possibly stemming from a decline in average working hours over the last year, could see November’s expectation of an inflation overshoot at the end of the two-year policy horizon remain intact. This would suggest that the current market forecast that the first increase in the Bank Rate will not take place until 2018 is overdone. Nonetheless, we do not expect Governor Carney to provide a strong steer on the timing at his press conference.”
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