BoE policy meeting preview: BoE likely to hold rates steady; MPC to vote 8-1 again

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 9, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Bank of England has held interest rates at record low of 0.5 per cent since March 2009. There is a lot of speculation in the market with respect to the timing of the rate hike. Bank Governor Mark Carney told lawmakers on that interest rates were likely to stay low for "some time". A Reuters poll showed economists are largely of the opinion that the first 25 basis point rise will come not earlier than April 2016. The low rates work in favour of borrowers but a blow to savers, who have been given to believe that rates will likely begin to rise at the beginning of 2016.

    Reuters poll had earlier predicted that the BoE would be the first of the central banks to raise rates. This outlook has however shifted as overall global economic outlook looks grim. The emerging economies led by China have shown constant signs of slowdown hurting international trade.

    Britain's economy slowed in the three months to September. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) noted economy grew 0.5 per cent in the third quarter, slower than the 0.7 per cent growth recorded in the April-June quarter. The central bank revised downward Britain's growth outlook to 2.7 per cent for 2015.

    Also, inflation is almost non-existent in Britain. Chief economist, Andy Haldane, warned that the economy and inflation were "skewed materially to the downside." Prices actually fell 0.1 per cent on the year in October for a second month. The British Retail Consortium’s data yesterday showed retail spending grew at the weakest pace for any November since 2011. The BoE has set an inflation target of 2 per cent. But at this rate it is impossible to achieve the target before 2017.

    Manufacturing output which was expected to stagnate in October actually fell 0.4 per cent month on month, lower than September’s 0.9 per cent increase. Britain’s manufacturers expect 2015 to be their worst year for growth since 2009. The manufacturing output data released yesterday further paints a gloomy picture of the economy. It will further complicate matters for the BoE which is already struggling to decide when to raise rates.

    If the slew of data released recently is anything to go by, the BoE will not raise rates when the MPC members meet tomorrow. The BoE will likely hold rates at record of 0.5 per cent. Howard Archer, chief economist at IHS Global Insight, said, 'As things currently stand, an interest rate hike in the first quarter of 20616 looks unlikely'. He predicts the first rate hike from 0.50% to 0.75% will likely happen in May 2016. He also adds “the increase could be later than this rather than before it.”

    In November, for the third consecutive month, just one of the nine Monetary Policy Committee members, Ian McCafferty had voted to raise rates this month. The scenario can be expected to stay unchanged tomorrow. The vote to hold rates can be expected to remain 8-1. Rabo bank in a research note mentioned "Overall, we maintain our view that the Bank is unlikely to raise rates before August 2016 and expect McCafferty to remain the lone hawk at the December policy meeting.”
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