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BOE Super Thursday preview: What to expect of GBP/USD?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 4, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Mumbai) - The GBP/USD pair has retraced 50% of the fall witnessed since mid-December (1.5240) to mid/late January (1.4079). The currency pair is trading around 1.4655 levels ahead of the Super Thursday BOE events – rate decision, policy minutes, quarterly inflation report, and Carney’s press conference.

    Rate decision could be a non-event

    The bank is not expected to move rates or alter other policy tools. Hence, it is likely to be a non-event for the Sterling traders.

    Focus on vote count

    The interest rate vote count is the single most important number today, as it would single handedly define BOE’s stance. The bank has turned dovish off late and the derivatives markets in the UK is pricing-in a slim chance of a rate cut in the next months. Hence, a 9-0 vote count or a member voting in favor of rate cut could spell disaster for the British Pound. On the contrary, 7-2 vote count would be a hawkish shock and lead to broad based USD strength.

    Watch out for Carney’s comments

    Carney’s take on the interest rate and the slack in the labor market and spare capacity could affect the demand for the British Pound. After BOJ’s negative rates surprise and ECB’s plans to do more in March, there is very little room left at the BOE to come out hawkish. Any talk of interest rate cut could weigh over Sterling.

    QIR – downward revision of inflation and GDP expected

    Low inflation and weak growth are already well known facts. Hence, the downward revision of the inflation and GDP forecasts should not come as a surprise.

    GBP/USD Technical Levels

    The spot currently trades around 1.4640. The immediate resistance is seen at 1.4655 (50% of 1.5230-1.4079), ahead of the major hurdle at 1.4786 (38.2% of 1.5930-1.4079)+1.4791 (61.8% of 1.5230-1.4079). A break higher could be seen in case of a hawkish shock and trigger a rally to upside technical target of 1.4825 – 1.4917 (monthly 5-MA).

    On the other hand, a break below the immediate support at 1.4587 (falling channel resistance on the daily chart) could send the pair lower to strong support zone of 1.4519-1.4515 (38.2% of 1.5230-1.4079 + 23.6% of 1.4079-1.4649). These strong support levels could be taken out in one go in case Carney talks about rate cut. In that case the pair may begin its journey back to the latest cyclical low of 1.4079.
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