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BoJ fireworks with largely operational tweaks to its QQE - BBH

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 18, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BBH, notes that the BoJ Governor Kuroda surprised the market with largely operational tweaks to what Japan calls Qualitative and Quantitative Easing.

    Key Quotes

    “Initially, and perhaps with the help of headline reading algos, the yen sold off and Japanese shares rallied. As cooler, or perhaps human, heads prevailed, the markets reversed. There are five adjustments to Japan's unorthodox monetary policy. However, it should be noted upfront that the expansion of the BOJ's balance sheet remains unchanged at JPY80 trillion a year.

    1. JGBs--the BOJ will lengthen the maturities it buys from 10 to 12 years.
    2. REITs--the prior cap, limiting BOJ ownership to 5% of any issue has been raised to 10%.
    3. Loans--There were two corporate loan programs that pre-dated Kuroda's appointment. These were extended.
    4. Collateral--the BOJ will now accept foreign currency denominated loans and housing loans as collateral. BOJ buying of JGBs removes instruments that Japanese banks use as collateral.
    5. ETS--This is the most complicated of the measures announced. In addition to the JPY3 trillion of ETF purchases, the BOJ appeared to offer a new JPY300 bln buying program. However, this is offset in full by a BOJ equity selling program that is to begin at the start of the new fiscal year in April to facilitate the bank unwinding cross shareholdings. The BOJ will begin selling the shares it acquired through this start in April. It anticipates selling about JPY300 bln a year. It did extend by 4.5 years (to March 2026) this program.

    We think there is validity in Kuroda's argument that the measures announced do not amount to additional easing. He argued these measures were operationally necessary. Three board members objected. The markets seem confused and whipsawed. The Nikkei initially jumped 3%, reversed, and closed on its lows, which were about 2% below the previous day's close. The reversal saw the Nikkei close the downside gap created by Thursday's sharply higher opening.

    The dollar's movement against the yen was similar, though of a smaller magnitude than equities. The dollar initially jumped from about JPY122.50 to JPY123.55 and then reversed, hitting JPY121.00 in the European morning. The exaggerated price action is partly a function of the surprise, but also a function of liquidity. We look for the dollar to return to the status quo ante--by which we mean where it was prior to the BOJ's announcement, or roughly JPY122.50.”
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