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BOJ may ease further at March if market turbulence persists – Nomura

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 18, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    Research Team at Nomura, suggests that they have lowered their end-FY16 North Sea Brent crude oil price assumption to $46.10/bbl.

    Key Quotes

    “On this assumption, we estimate that y-y core CPI inflation will fall to -0.4% in 2016 Q2 and finally recover above 0% in 2017 Q1. Inflation excluding energy costs is likely to fall slowly as the weak-yen factor drops from the picture and on that basis we think the BOJ will implement additional easing measures in July.

    However, if financial markets remain in turmoil, we think the BOJ could well decide on additional easing measures, centered on lowering its policy rate or increasing purchases of equities and other risk assets, at its next monetary policy meeting on 14–15 March.

    In our view, lowering negative interest rates would have a limited positive impact on the economy, owing to side effects on financial institutions, but would probably help weaken the yen to a degree.”
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