BoJ minutes preview - what to expect in Yen?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 23, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/JPY has been in a tight declining range since the Fed hiked rates and the BoJ 'sort of' announcing looser monetary policy via the extension of the average maturity of its government bond holdings from 7-10 years to 7-12 years to tackle yields at the longer end of the curve.

    The BoJ also announced a JPY 300bn ETF program targeted at firms making investments in “physical and human capital”. This was not well communicated and sent the market in a bit of a short-lived panic before the downside resumed again as investors digested how small the programme actually is and hence lower Nikkei and higher Yen. Kuroda also said that these changes were no more than a technicality and does not represent additional easing.

    BoJ minutes to offer new insights?

    From the minutes, we will be looking for confirmation that easing is not on its way, but at the same time looking for hints to see whether the BOJ is beginning to see increased downside risks to the economy and to understand if there are any signals that the members see the need for additional easing to be implemented going forward and that these technical measures will help in that.

    Analysts at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi explained that Governor Kuroda has stated today that the steps taken were “pre-emptive and preparatory”. "Preparation for what? We currently do not expect additional BOJ monetary easing and hence we lean toward today's actions highlighting the constraints in continuing with such an aggressive monetary easing stance. “Pre-emptive and preparatory” action may refer to the BOJ seeing the difficulties that lie ahead in terms of being able to implement the current policy stance."

    "Governor Kuroda has stated that there is no limit to possible action, but clearly there is. USD/JPY is now below levels when the FOMC raised rates last Wednesday, underlining the building support for the yen."

    What is in store for USD/JPY in 2016?

    Adam Button, MD at Forexlive explained that, “Crises in 2016 could come in junk bonds and if energy continues to collapse, USDJPY will go down in a classic flight to safety” Ashraf Laidi, founder of Intermarket Strategy Ltd added that “USD did not reach highs vs EUR or JPY, and that is telling”.

    This was said during when FXStreet hosted a special event about what 2016 might hold for the Forex traders. The panelists were Ashraf Laidi, Boris Schlossberg, Adam Button and Valeria Bednarik. Today, we want to share with you the recording of the whole show. Watch now and look out for commentary around the BoJ, Fed, commodities, China, uncertainties, crises and currency wars.

    USD/JPY levels to monitor

    Technically, the charts are broadly bearish with price below the 100/200 cross over and cluster of MA's on the daily chart, supported at the base of the “cloud” chart support at 120.85. A break to the downside could target 119 level near‐ term. Moreover, the downside momentum signals are bearishly aligned across a range of time frames. S1 is at 120.57 and S2 at 120.27. S3 is at 119.97 guarding aforementioned round number target of 119.00.
    For more information, read our latest forex news.

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