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BOJ preview: A close decision to come - Nomura

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 25, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Bali) - Yujiro Goto and Yunosuke Ikeda, Strategists at Nomura, expect the BOJ to stand pat this week, despite admiting that the decision is a close call given recent developments in financial markets.

    Key Quotes

    The BOJ is at crucial point for maintaining its credibility. JPY is also at a critical juncture. Our economists expect the BOJ to leave its policy unchanged this week, but we judge the decision to be a close call.

    Deteriorating inflation and less concerns about JPY weakness among politicians suggest a higher probability of a BOJ easing next week than at any other meetings in 2015.

    We would not be surprised if the BOJ decides to ease next week to avoid further USD/JPY depreciation to below 115, before it actually breaches that level.

    If the market remains volatile and the BOJ still leaves its policy unchanged, this could weaken the BOJ’s credibility for its commitment to inflation target, while increasing doubts about the BOJ’s ability to do so. Under this risk scenario, USD/JPY could breach 115.

    A sharp depreciation at this time to below 115, when corporates and investors are considering the USD/JPY outlook into the new fiscal year, will likely have a lasting negative impact on medium-term USD/JPY.
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