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BOJ preview: What to expect in USD/JPY?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Mar 15, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    Most market participants are expecting the Bank of Japan to leave its monetary policy unchanged today, following the dramatic and unexpected decision to set a negative interest rate program in its last meeting. Goign forward though, the market still appears keen to bet on further easing, but not just yet, as the Central Bank now monitors the impact of its negative interest rate policy.

    Expectations for further negative rates remain, but not for today

    Adam Button, Managing Director at Forexlive wrote for AshrafLaidi.com, noting: "First, there are two numbers to watch with the BOJ decision, which is usually announced between noon and 1 pm Tokyo time. The first is the main policy rate, which was lowered to -0.10% in a surprise move at the January BOJ. Another cut is extremely unlikely and none of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg anticipates it."

    Adam adds: "Where there is some chance of a chance is in the growth in the monetary base, which currently sits at 80T yen. A handful of economists see a rise to 90T yen. The reason most don't expect any change isn't the economy. Signs of deflation and non-existent growth continue to mount and the recent strength in the yen isn't doing the outlook any favours. Rather, the BOJ has indicated that it wants to assess the January measures before it makes another move."

    Nomura expects no changes in BOJ policy

    Meanwhile, Economists at Nomura, also expects the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to stay on 'wait-and-see' mode for now. The bank published a research note, noting that "while there has been a decline in the yield curve following the introduction of the negative interest rate policy, there has been hardly any impact on prices and the real economy."

    Nomura elaborates further, saying that "if anything, attention has been focused on the unfavourable impact of negative interest rates, such as the deterioration in earnings at financial institutions."

    USD/JPY outlook

    As per the potential reaction in USD/JPY, Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, provides her take on the pair's outlook: "Ahead of the monetary policy meeting, the pair maintains a neutral technical stance, having been unable to leave the 112.10/114.60 for the past two weeks."

    Valeria expands: "The short term picture presents a limited positive tone, as in the 1 hour chart, the price held above its moving averages, whilst the technical indicators head slightly higher above their mid-lines."

    In the 4 hours chart, Valeria sees the technical stance as neutral, "with the technical indicators barely bouncing from their mid-lines, but lacking enough strength to confirm a new leg higher", the Analyst wrote.
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