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Brazil: BRL rally to continue for now – TDS

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Oct 12, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Cristian Maggio, Head of Emerging Markets Strategy at TD Securities, suggests that he see the possibility that the BRL rally continues for now.

    Key Quotes

    “As I thought USDBRL at 4.20 was unreasonable, and at 4.00 continued to have BRL weaker than we should reasonably expect, with USDBRL down at 3.76 that large BRL undervaluation is now gone. Our quarter-end forecast is 3.65, and we continue to consider this level the diving line between over and undervaluation.”

    “Local press these days is all about the involvement of Lower House President Cunha, Dilma Rousseff’s archenemy, in a corruption investigation that threatens to rock Congress ever more. As the speaker of the house, Cunha has the power to put a presidential impeachment motion to a vote. But now, opposition parties are all asking for Cunha’s resignation, which means that Dilma’s position is re-strengthening after last week’s TCU blow and other adverse decisions from Brazil’s supreme courts.”

    “So all in all, things seem favourable for Brazil now. I think the 3.65/3.75 trading range will be somewhat stretched, given the speed at which USDBRL has retreated towards these levels, but reachable. In the absence of any strong local news, the crucial variable will be as always the market mood.”
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