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Brazil expected to keep rates unchanged – TDS

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 24, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategists at TD Securities see the Brazilian central bank keeping its monetary stance on hold at tomorrow’s meeting.

    Key Quotes

    “In line with the unanimous consensus, we expect the Selic rate to be kept on hold at 14.25% in Brazil”.

    “The press statement accompanying the October COPOM meeting repeated the formula “that the maintenance of this basic interest rate level, for a sufficiently long period, is necessary for the convergence of the inflation to the target in the relevant horizon for the monetary policy”.

    “Inflation is continuing to creep up, with November IPCA-15 reaching 10.28% Y/Y, but inflation should start falling next year if only because of base effects”.

    “The DI curve is pricing in a lowish chance of a 25bps hike at Wednesday’s meeting, but is continuing to price in large rate hikes further out”.

    “Our central expectation is that 14.25% will represent the high point in the tightening cycle and that rates will start being cut towards the end of next year. However, in the near-term the risk to rates is clearly to the upside”.
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