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Brexit: Campaigning begins ahead of June 23 referendum – Goldman Sachs

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 23, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    Andrew Benito, Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs, suggests that following the conclusion of the renegotiation of the UK’s position within the EU at the European summit over the weekend, UK Prime Minister David Cameron announced that the UK’s in/out referendum on EU membership will take place on Thursday, 23 June.

    Key Quotes

    “As expected, the renegotiation resulted in only small changes from the draft settlement published earlier this month, involving further compromise on issues that had yet to be resolved in the draft settlement.

    The agreement reached in Brussels has not proved sufficient to avoid several senior figures in the ruling Conservative Party from now campaigning for the UK to leave the EU, including the Mayor of London Boris Johnson.

    Overall and as widely expected, Mr. Cameron has managed to conclude the renegotiation in a way that allows his preferred, and relatively early, date for the referendum to take place. The outcome of the referendum will depend rather more on the case made by the Remain campaign for a continuation of something close to the status quo - and the risks involved in leaving the EU, particularly in the uncertain transition phase - than it will on the specific measures agreed in Brussels at the end of last week.

    Yet, given the relatively modest renegotiation of the UK’s links with Europe, several senior members of his ruling Conservative Party have declared their support for the campaign to leave the EU. In a setback to the Remain campaign, this includes the Mayor of London, Boris Johnson and Justice Secretary, Michael Gove. In our preview, we had suggested that that Mr. Cameron’s proposed ‘sovereignty law’ would ensure Mr. Johnson’s support for the Remain campaign. But this has proved not to be the case.

    Overall, the outcome of the referendum will depend rather more on the case made by the Remain campaign for a continuation of something close to the status quo - and the risks involved in leaving the EU - than it will on the reforms that have been negotiated.”
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