Brexit: GBP could fall a further 15-20% vs USD – HSBC

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Mar 9, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
    Likes Received:
    Research Team at HSBC, suggests that the asset class that would be likely to bear the brunt of this Brexit uncertainty is FX.

    Key Quotes

    “A Brexit vote could lead investors to worry about the UK’s ‘twin deficits’. To date, these have largely been ignored by the FX market. Brexit could raise concerns and Mark Carney, the BoE Governor, recently warned that Brexit could leave the UK reliant on “the kindness of strangers” in an environment of global economic volatility.

    Already a gap has opened up between the observed level of sterling and the level implied by interest rate differentials. If the currency market is pricing in around a 33% probability of a Brexit vote, GBP-USD could fall by around another 15-20% should a Brexit vote occur (i.e. if the probability shifted from 33% to 100%). This would see GBP-USD falling to levels not witnessed since the early 1980s. We also think that the GBP would come under pressure against the EUR. Indeed, EUR-GBP could move towards parity in the aftermath of a Brexit vote.”
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