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CAD CPI Preview: What’s expected of USD/CAD

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 20, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Today’s Canadian docket includes inflation figures tracked by the CPI for the month of October and September’s Retail Sales.

    BoC’s Core CPI is expected to have risen at an annual pace of 2.0%, a tad below September’s 2.1% advance, although well around the central bank’s target.

    On the other hand, Retail Sales figures could be of more concern for the Bank of Canada given their choppy performance as of late and the lack of a sustained recovery. It is worth recalling that the domestic economic growth has become a major concern for the BoC, relegating inflation issues to a secondary role.

    According to strategists at TD Securities, “In volume terms, we expect retail sales to contract but not as weak as the nominal headline figure, but taken in conjunction with a poor manufacturing and wholesale sales suggests that monthly industry level GDP contracted by 0.1- 0.2% m/m in September. This would imply a downward bias to the BoC’s Q3 and Q4 GDP estimate of 2.5% and 1.5% respectively”.

    In terms of potential reactions in USD/CAD, the pair faces an interim resistance at last week’s 1.3373, ahead of the psychological mark at 1.3400, followed by YTD tops at 1.3459. On the opposite side, 1.3217 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of 1.34359-1.2827) emerges as the initial support ahead of the 55-day sma at 1.3188.
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