CAD: September jobs report, risks are to the downside – BBH

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Oct 9, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
    Likes Received:
    FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BBH, suggest that Canada reports September jobs data today and we suspect the risks are to the downside while the consensus expects a 10k increase in jobs, leaving the unemployment rate at 7.0%.

    Key Quotes

    “Given the weak growth of the Canadian economy, the 54.4k full-time positions created in August is unsustainable. In addition, like the US, the participation rate in Canada is low. The consensus forecast is for it to slip back to 65.8% from 65.9%, keeping it bouncing along the trough, but also warning of upside risks to the unemployment rate. Afterwards, the Bank of Canada will release its senior loan officer survey. Separately, Bank of Canada Governor Poloz is speaking over the weekend.”

    “The US dollar is at its lowest level against the Canadian dollar since late July. It is approaching the 100-day average (~CAD1.2890), which it has not traded below since late-June. It also corresponds with the retracement objective of the rally since the May lows (~CAD1.2870). A break of this level could spur a move toward CAD1.2700.”
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