CAD: Setting up for real GDP (Q4 & December) - TDS

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Mar 1, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    Research Team at TDS, suggests that it appears likely that Canada ended 2015 on a flat note, with real GDP expected to have stood still in the fourth quarter.

    Key Quotes

    “As has been the case throughout 2015, the major components of the economy are likely to have seen diverging patterns of growth. Consumer spending has grown throughout the year, and is likely to have expanded modestly in Q4 (+0.6%, q/q annualized). This would mark a deceleration from the third quarter, largely the result of a normalization of spending on durable goods (forecast: +1.5%, down from +9.7% in Q3). Residential investment growth likely ticked up slightly, forecast to have grown 3.0% in the fourth quarter as activity continues to benefit from the effect of past interest rate cuts.

    Finally, net exports are expected to have contributed positively to growth, but the details are less positive, with the boost resulting from a larger contraction in imports (- 3.4%) than exports (-2.1%). There is also some indication that exports may be slightly weaker than expected, which would further reduce the contribution of net exports.

    Balancing out these positives will be non-residential investment, which is likely to have contracted 10.7% in 2015Q4. Investment in non-residential structures is likely to have led the sector lower (- 12.2%), with equipment and intellectual property products also forecast to have contracted (-8.4%).

    Taking a forward-looking view, the more recent monthly data has generally been supportive of growth, and industry-level GDP is expected to have made a modest advance in December. This should provide some decent momentum heading into the first quarter of 2016, although our current tracking suggests that the start of the year is likely to see only modest growth.”
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