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Canada GDP to marginally improve in October, marking slow start of Q4

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 23, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Mumbai) - Canada GDP figures for October will be released by Statistics Canada at 12:30pm GMT today. GDP is believed to have grown only marginally in October. The GDP is estimated to have grown between 0.2 and 0.3 per cent in October after having contracted 0.5 per cent in September. October’s GDP has been supported by crude oil production which was restored as well as retail trade sales.

    Production of crude oil was restored in October after having shut down in September due to a fire at the Mildred Lake bitumen mining facility. David Madani, economist at Capital Economics noted, "The data that we've seen in September showed that there was quite a drop in oil production. And that was only partially revised in October.” This factor is believed to have helped GDP to move up in October.

    Growth had contracted in the first two quarters of the fiscal while the third quarter had shown signs of improvement. The not so impressive growth figures signify that the 4th quarter has had a slow start. Overall, it does not look likely that Canada will end the year on a high note.

    Madani believed retail trade has also helped to boost growth in October. Retail sales data for October is also being released today. Retail sales can be expected to rise 0.4% in October as compared to a -0.5 per cent drop in September

    Weak manufacturing, construction and wholesale trade are believed to have hurt GDP in October. Statistics Canda had reported manufacturing activity declined in October for the third straight month in, slipping 1.1 per cent to touch the lowest dollar value since May. Utilities likely contracted due to mild weather. Construction probably declined based. Oil slump has hurt the engineering and construction sector. Wholesale trade likely have suffered as well.October wholesale trade also fell for the fourth month in a row, down 0.6 per cent.

    The Bank of Canada estimates 1.5% growth for Q4. In its December statement the central bank stated "The Bank expects GDP growth to moderate in the fourth quarter of 2015 before moving to a rate above potential in 2016”. The BoC left its interest rate unchanged at 0.5% at its last meeting. It also stressed that the economy will continue to be supported by the loose monetary policy and lower currency value as well as the US recovery.

    However, after the dismal growth in September and modest growth in October, there have been doubts with respect to the BoC outlook. Also, poor growth figures for October will likely weigh on the Canadian currency which is already under pressure from the sharp decline in oil price.

    If indicators continue to disappoint, the BoC might choose to ease further in 2016. Nick Exarhos, economist at CIBC World Markets echoed a broad market sentiment when he said in a note that if the Q4 GDP falls less than 0.8 per cent estimate it will “have the market pricing in some odds of easing”.
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