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Capex preview: How will the AUD/USD react? - Westpac

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 24, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    Westpac provides a preview of today's Australian Q4 private capex survey, noting that AUD should react to both but initially should focus on total capex for which the median forecast is -3% q/q.

    Key Quotes

    "Australia’s Q4 private capex survey will be released at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK. This includes both actual capex in Q4 which will help shape forecasts for GDP on Wed and a survey of planned investment."

    "AUD should react to both but initially should focus on total capex for which the median forecast is -3% q/q. Westpac looks for -4% (with downside risks) but it is also important to check the breakdown by category. We look for -6.5% on buildings & structures but flat on plant & equipment. If the headline number surprises, it is the equipment category that will have the much larger impact on GDP forecasts (ahead of this, we are on 0.7% q/q)."

    "In terms of investment plans, we will see Estimate 5 for 2015/16 capex and Est 1 for 2016/17. Westpac is expecting plans to remain downbeat. We are forecasting Est 5 for 2015/16 at $119bn, similar to Est 4 at $120bn, and -21% on Est 5 for 2014/15. We would see a result of $112bn as softer and an upside surprise to our forecast at $127bn less weak. For Est 1 of 2016/17 we see $87bn, -15% on Est 1 a year ago. A Bloomberg survey found a median of $93bn on this."

    "The industry breakdown will also be worth noting. The capex survey overweights the mining sector, where investment should return to pre-boom levels, ensuring steep falls in this survey. Meanwhile, we are yet to see a sustained upturn in service sector investment despite improvement in conditions and a strong increase in employment. Our $87bn estimate for 2016/17 assumes only +1% y/y on services investment plans."
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