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Capex preview: what to expect in AUD/USD

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 26, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD has been building a case on the bid in a minor recovery of the November lows to date. However, the greenback was better bid across the board today and has dragged on the coat-tails of the otherwise resilient Aussie. With the US closing up books ahead of Thanksgiving the Asian markets may have the last dance on the Capex data before the week is out with mixed sentiment surrounding the outcome for Q3 results.

    Definition of Capital Expenditure (Capex)

    Capital expenditure, or CapEx, are a company's funds used to acquire and/or upgrade physical assets such as industrial building, property or company equipment. This is not to be confused with revenue expenditure. These funds are instead used to undertake new projects or investments to maintain or increase the scope of the businesses operations.

    Capex is a key data release for the RBA who are forecasting the business environment ahead with company's investment plans for 2015/2016 with a specific interest in the non-mining sector while looking for improvements in that side of the economy in a weak Global commodity environment.

    What to expect in tonight's Capex

    Analysts at Goldman Sachs, expect the Australian capex trends to remain generally weak in the 3Q2015 update and expect total capex to fall by 4.0%qoq in the quarter itself, with the most important component of that decline being 2.0%qoq fall in machinery & equipment spending (as it is this sub-component which best translates to the National Accounts).

    Analysts at Westpac suggested that perhaps the more durable influence on AUD will be the 4th estimate of investment plans for 2015/16, with the survey conducted from Oct to early Nov. "In the 3rd estimate, total capex was seen at A$115bn, about -23% y/y. This was a weak outcome, with services particularly disappointing, -6% y/y."

    AUD/USD levels to monitor

    Technically, AUD/USD trades above the 100 DMA still at 0.7202 today and remains resilient. a positive surprise in the Capex could well see the 0.73 handle tested with a target on 0.7350 before October highs at 0.7382. There will be little in the way of US flows to prevent a full on onslaught at the broader bearish trend line stemming from mid June business otherwise. However, anything short of the 0.73 handle leaves the overall outlook bearish and the Nov recovery attempts short of the 0.7298/0.7385 Fibo retracement levels. Bears would be targeting the pre-Aussie jobs data news price at 0.7060 in the medium term.
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