China’s CPI/PPI figures for October point towards rising deflationary pressure

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 10, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Mumbai) - The data released by National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) today showed the Chinese October consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.3 per cent from a year earlier, declining further from 1.6 per cent in September. It was below the expectations of the Reuters poll of economists who estimated the CPI to come in at 1.5%. The October CPI (MoM) came in at -0.3% vs -0.2% expected.

    The producer prices at -5.9% YoY, below the -5.8% expected continued its fall for the 44th straight month giving rise to deflationary pressures. The producer price index (PPI) fell 5.9 per cent in October from a year earlier, equalling September’s figures and slightly below the economists' forecasts of a 5.8 per cent drop.

    The poor figures reflect the slowing of demand growth for many goods. Heavy industrial firms and miners were hit by an extended slump in the real estate sector; the final demand for many of their products was thus particularly poor. The figures further highlighted the already existing trend of falling producer price and low consumer prices.

    All economic indicators provide proof of a ‘slowing’ economy

    Signs of the economy slowing abound. The trade data released on Saturday did nothing to boost optimism. China posted another disappointing month of trade numbers, with both imports and exports well below expectations. Exports fell 6.9 per cent and imports slipped to 18.8 per cent in October. Private and official survey also showed decline in activities in China's factory sector in October. And now the feeble inflation figures have been released. The disappointing CPI/PPI data released on the heels of the trade data increases the possibility of more rate cuts by the central bank.

    More easing needed to stimulate demand

    The central bank has already cut benchmark interest six times since November 2014 and repeatedly reduced banks' RRR. China is already in its biggest easing cycle since the height of the financial crisis.

    More stimulus is however required so that Beijing does not miss its growth target of no less than 6.5 per cent in the next five years. More rate cuts are also needed to ensure China’s smooth transition to more a consumption-led growth model. Only monetary easing can stimulate further demand in China.
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