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China: A mixed bag of economy - Rabobank

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 12, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Delhi) - Michael Every, Research Analyst at Rabobank, suggests that the recent economic releases from the mainland suggests that China is a mixed bag.

    Key Quotes

    “Retail sales were stronger than expected at 11.0% y-o-y (and likely higher including on-line spending, where ‘Singles Day’ orders set a record), but industrial production slowed to 5.6%, and fixed investment to 10.2%.”

    “That is exactly the rebalancing China needs: it just isn’t compatible with headline growth of 6.5%. The shift to China as a consumer also stands to benefit the world economy. However, it would arguably be more helpful if China wasn’t also the producer of the goods it’s buying.”

    “Recall that imports dropped 18.8% y-o-y in USD terms in October. Indeed, ‘China the consumer’ is now running an even larger trade surplus than it was when it was ‘China the producer’. For exporters to China it is therefore still too often a case of “No soup for you!”
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