China: A trifecta of trouble for commodity bloc – Westpac

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 18, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
    Likes Received:
    FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Westpac, suggests that not surprisingly then with volatility rising, commodities sharply lower and Asian central bank reserves falling, commodity currencies have been hit hard.

    Key Quotes

    “ZAR, NZD, AUD and CAD are the worst performing currencies so far this year with losses of 6.76% to 3.64% respectively. With copper below $4500, iron ore below $40 and Brent at $30 it’s easy to understand why.

    Commodity inventory is rising (crude and iron ore) and a limited supply response to date suggests the move has further to run. To be fair, we did see a noticeable improvement in Chinese imports of raw materials this week in Dec - copper imports up 14%3myy; iron ore at a fresh record and +9%3myy plus crude +9%3myy. However, part of this is likely seasonal ahead of Lunar New Year and shipping activity in January so far has softened.

    We remain bearish commodity currencies and target 1.45 for USD/CAD; NZD down to 0.62 and AUD down to 0.68. We remain long USD/CAD from 1.3584 on Dec 9 and like selling strength in NZD.”
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