Tim Condon, Chief Economist at ING, expects the impact of the Chinese spending shock to persist and export growth in 2016 to be weaker than 2015’s -2.5%. Key Quotes “Commerce Minister Gao Hucheng told the China Development Forum that foreign trade would bounce in March from the January-February crash. Lunar New Year seasonality typically means a big sequential drop in average January-February exports (from the 4Q average) and a big sequential bounce in March. We think more than seasonal factors were behind this year’s unusually large, 25.8% January-February decline, in particular, a global spending shock from the 30% crash in global oil prices in December-January. We expect the impact of the spending shock to persist and export growth in 2016 to be weaker than 2015’s -2.5%.” For more information, read our latest forex news.