China GDP still slowing - BTMU

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Apr 7, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
    Likes Received:
    Analysts at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi explained that flows this week have turned progressively bid - and said they always respect flows - so USD/CNH is now > USD/CNY.

    Key Quotes:

    "Hard to see the factors that would lead to short-run bullishness (bad GDP? oiler demand?). If USD/RMB does rise, it could see the CFETS basket weaken beyond a very preliminary band we've constructed."

    "Foreign reserves measured in USD rose in March (some pundits had it for February but it didn't happen)."

    "Even minuscule reserve earnings, however, and the revaluation effect from a weaker USD (a la BOK) => there is still capital outflows in this data, given the trade surplus."

    "China reporting its reserves in SDR is in lnie with PBOC Governor Zhou's long-held desire to get away from USD in international finance, just what Richard Cooper (the father of the SDR) also wanted in 1968."

    "But Zhou's lone effort will likely prove quixotic, as China is the only SDR member reporting reserves in SDR. After PMI rebounds, we wait to see if real indicators can live up to such expectations. Headline GDP growth is likely still slowing."
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