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China headed for a hard landing?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 8, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - China reported news over the weekend with both exports and imports missing expectations and offered more evidence that the economy is slowing and despite the recent rate cut from the PBoC.

    Chinese trade balance a concern

    The Chinese trade balance offered a surplus of $61.4bn for October vs expectations of +$62.0bn while prior was $60.34bn. Exports were -6.9% y/y vs expected -3.2% (prior was -3.7%) while Imports were -18.8% y/y vs expected -15.2% (prior was -20.4%).

    In fact, the Chinese economy recorded its highest trade surplus on record last month while imports were very alarming and highlighted that the world's second-largest economy struggles to boost domestic demand weighing heavily on a deteriorating economy.

    AUD/USD bears lurking on Chinese news

    On this basis, China could be facing its toughest year since the height of the financial crisis and could be headed for a heavy landing. The open is likely to price in such concerns in the commodity sector and in the Australian dollar. AUD/USD finished last week's session at 0.7036 after the Nonfarm Payrolls data that shaved 150 pips off the price.

    However, Kit Juckes, economist at Societe Generale, explained that unless the Chinese economy slows more sharply and/or the CNY weakens sharply, the gut-reaction sell-off in commodity prices shouldn't go too far, but so long as commodity prices remain soft, AUD and NZD will remain vulnerable.
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