China: Housing market becoming a GDP growth driver - ING

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Oct 23, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Prakash Sakpal Economist at ING, notes that China’s rising spending on housing is becoming a driver of GDP growth and we reiterate our 7% GDP growth forecast for 4Q15, revised up from 6.7%.

    Key Quotes

    “The National Bureau of Statistics released 70-cities new home price indexes for September. 39 cities reported sequential increase in prices (first figure), up from 35 in August. Three Tier I cities (Guangzhou, Shanghai and Shenzhen) posted increase in excess of 1%, unchanged from August. Shenzhen remained the hot spot with a 4% rise (5.1% in August). Prices in 21 cities fell between 0-1%, down from 25 in August.”

    “Today’s data reinforces the positive message from the 16.7% YoY surge in housing starts and 91% surge in new mortgage loans in September (second figure) that rising spending on housing is becoming a driver of GDP growth. Following the release of 3Q GDP earlier this week we revised our 4Q GDP growth forecast to 7.0% from 6.7% and full-year growth forecast to 6.9% from 6.8% (consensus 6.8% for both 4Q and 2015).”

    “The Communist Party’s Fifth Plenum will be held next week, October 26-29 where the leaders will approve the 13th Five-Year (2016-2020) Plan. The big question is the GDP growth target. It was 7% in the current plan. Growth averaged at 7.4% from 2011 to 3Q15. We see it settling around 6.5% over the course of the next Five-Year Plan.”
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